Friday, August 03, 2007

GEOPOLITICS: What the future might hold!

Prior to subscribing to The Brussels Journal I thought I was well-versed in global geopolitics ... now I see that to have been a false positive; I'm about as well-versed in global geopolitics as compared to the thinkers at TBJ as a Washington page is well-versed in insider politics when compared to Newt Gingrich.
In an earlier essay I noted that the preponderant nature of war had been changing over the past half century or so, from international wars between states to civil wars within states. History does not suggest that this state of affairs will continue forever. Indeed, liberal democracy faces currently two major challenges: (A) the terrorism emanating from radical Islam and (B) the renewed rise of non-democratic great powers. The first threat is the more immediate one. But, it is the lesser of the two, because it originates in stagnant and backward societies that are largely living on the economic rent from natural resources and that pose no military threat to developed societies. However, their potential use of acquired weapons of mass destruction does present a serious and growing menace. Nevertheless, it is the second threat in the form of the return of authoritarian great powers (specifically China and Russia), that is likely to be the major threat to liberal democracy’s survival in the foreseeable future.
I would not have given as much thought to the realities stated in th above five years ago, as I must now! I was partially blinded by my concern over the radical nature of Muhammadan fanaticism and their amoral view of the sanctity of human life.

The difference between that threat and the threat of a non-democratic superpower is clearly revealed in the words of the paragraph above ... "stagnant and backward societies that are largely living on the economic rent from natural resources." Add to that the educational vacuum of their oppressed masses and you see why they are no longterm global threat. My bad.

Meanwhile the old Sino-Soviet bloc really is a threat; like all Christians, I just needed to wake up!

Noisy Room

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